This argument isn't relevant to systems though. In systems terms, knowledge doesn’t suspend thermodynamics. Every solution has an energy and material cost, and those costs accumulate. You can't 'solve' thermodynamics - they are immutable, physical laws.
Thanks for this excellent survey and summary! It's nice to see the most sophisticated arguments collected in one place.
I saw the fellow complaining that he can still get food, gas, and electricity, therefore it's not collapse. Poor him! I feel the need to mention that there are places in the world where those commodities are not, indeed, available. In fact, there are places which have already been rendered uninhabitable by the ravages of global industrial civilization. A little bit of empathy and imagination can bring the truth close to you, even if it's not in your house right now.
With collegial respect: I do not share your optimism (if you can call it that) that humanity's efforts can alter the downward course of collapse. I believe we are now in a regime where the Earth's systems are acting on a scale that utterly dwarfs even our prodigious capabilities. The Earth does her cycles over hundreds of millions of years, with power commensurate to those eons. We are a funny blip, not even to be noticed in the geographic record (should there be anyone to notice us). That said, our spirits are eternal and we dance in the galaxies forever, but that's another conversation!
Thanks so much David, I'm a long time follower of your work.
I only believe local responses are possible, nothing at national or global level. I think I'm fairly explicit that humans may well not have a role to play moving forward.
I've never been called optimistic before!! Thanks again mate.
ust reading you for the first time, and I’m interested.
May I say, though, that I can’t really respond to the invitation above until I finish reading. Will I want to support at the end of the essay? Or won’t I? That’s still an open question for me—and part of the pleasure of reading is discovering the answer.
In a friendly spirit, I’d suggest placing the “Pledge your support” butto/Users/lisacitron/Desktop/Screenshot 2026-02-04 at 6.17.54 PM.pngn at the bottom of the piece. It may already be there, of course—but I won’t know until I arrive.
I'm late to the party here. Just tumbled in. I liked finding you. We should be talking to each other more, and I think it was today's post where I talked about that:
Thanks for this. I didn't go too deep into the detail around resource depletion as I wanted to keep this piece as snappy as possible while tying all the key elements together. You're right though, peak oil looms large over the coming years. There is no way out of this as you say, just how we choose to respond.
Thank you for doing that work Adrian, your understanding of collapse and how we might respond to it has been very helpful.
I've been collapse aware for sometime, but most acutely since the significant jump in world average temperatures and severe weather events of the last three years, and through a clearer awareness of changes here in UK. I have become addicted to following posters on Bluesky, such as Eliot Jacobson (and through that others), perhaps because I keep needing to be really sure of all this.
I'm (inevitably) in the later years of my life and with my wife we are hoping to have a new life in Scotland soon, where I'd like us to live well with collapse in mind and where can contribute some skills in the local community.
Thanks Peter, glad this was helpful. Sounds like you're in a good place in terms of accepting where we are and where we're going. I hope to hear about your Scotland move on here!
Thanks Kevin, appreciate that. I'm a huge fan of Michael Dowd - he's been a huge inspiration to me to start writing about nature and our civilisational predicament. Cheers
In my country New Zealand the government describes us sentient beings as consumers. My task as a good citizen is to consume and thereby contribute to growth! In other words hasten my own death. It's a mad mad world but your wonderfully thoughtful article has made me even more determined to resist consuming as if I am a plague. Thank you.
Great article. Coincidentally, I wrote something similar from 4 perspectives (biopsicosociocultural). The biological perspective is framed through Energy blindness; the psychosocial perspective through human needs without exceeding limits; and the cultural one is framed through Joanna Macy's 'The Work that Reconnects' and 'The Great Turning', which is paired with "The Long Dark" we are living in right now. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-live-four-mottos-living-healthy-lifestyle-jes%C3%BAs-mart%C3%ADn-gonz%C3%A1lez-roa0e/
You're probably aware that peak U.S. oil production, led by the declining Permian Basin, could happen as soon as 2027, with the world following not long after. Plateauing OPEC output was bailed out by U.S. fracking around 2008 and it was called a "financial" crisis, not an oil crisis.
Peak Oil will initiate global economic shrinkage and major hardships, though nuclear power could delay the worst of it for awhile. It will also be the prime factor in slowing AGW, since people won't limit greed voluntarily until gluttony costs too much.
"100% renewable energy" fantasies (sprawling wind & solar is built and backed up w/oil & gas) are preventing many people from reacting wisely to what's coming. I don't see any easy way out of this.
I really like this.It's a very clear article. I guess I'm more scientifically incline than perhaps some people.But maybe that doesn't matter. So for me , principles of thermodynamics sit very comfortably from a scientific point. But weather, I'm comfortable with it or not.I can't help thinking that the human dimension in all of this , which is about providing beliefs and values and frames to justify just about anything , is a major obstacle toward universal understanding of the issues we face. So even if we don't put her hands over our ears and ignore our crisis it's quite difficult for people who adopt even subtly different frames of reference to unite around the problem let alone the solution. Plenty to think about.. plenty to get on with. Thanks for your contributuion.
A comprehensive read with lots of resources to follow up. Thank you for writing this and for posting in the neighbourhood group on FB. I’ll be sharing this with others.
This argument isn't relevant to systems though. In systems terms, knowledge doesn’t suspend thermodynamics. Every solution has an energy and material cost, and those costs accumulate. You can't 'solve' thermodynamics - they are immutable, physical laws.
And this will be the outcome https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/collapse-and-cannibalism
Nobody survives https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
Thanks for this excellent survey and summary! It's nice to see the most sophisticated arguments collected in one place.
I saw the fellow complaining that he can still get food, gas, and electricity, therefore it's not collapse. Poor him! I feel the need to mention that there are places in the world where those commodities are not, indeed, available. In fact, there are places which have already been rendered uninhabitable by the ravages of global industrial civilization. A little bit of empathy and imagination can bring the truth close to you, even if it's not in your house right now.
With collegial respect: I do not share your optimism (if you can call it that) that humanity's efforts can alter the downward course of collapse. I believe we are now in a regime where the Earth's systems are acting on a scale that utterly dwarfs even our prodigious capabilities. The Earth does her cycles over hundreds of millions of years, with power commensurate to those eons. We are a funny blip, not even to be noticed in the geographic record (should there be anyone to notice us). That said, our spirits are eternal and we dance in the galaxies forever, but that's another conversation!
Thanks for this great entry!
Thanks so much David, I'm a long time follower of your work.
I only believe local responses are possible, nothing at national or global level. I think I'm fairly explicit that humans may well not have a role to play moving forward.
I've never been called optimistic before!! Thanks again mate.
ust reading you for the first time, and I’m interested.
May I say, though, that I can’t really respond to the invitation above until I finish reading. Will I want to support at the end of the essay? Or won’t I? That’s still an open question for me—and part of the pleasure of reading is discovering the answer.
In a friendly spirit, I’d suggest placing the “Pledge your support” butto/Users/lisacitron/Desktop/Screenshot 2026-02-04 at 6.17.54 PM.pngn at the bottom of the piece. It may already be there, of course—but I won’t know until I arrive.
Not convincing
I'm late to the party here. Just tumbled in. I liked finding you. We should be talking to each other more, and I think it was today's post where I talked about that:
This is today:
Some keys to the kingdom
The turn-the-world-around syllabus
https://suzannetaylor.substack.com/p/some-keys-to-the-kingdom
Thanks for this. I didn't go too deep into the detail around resource depletion as I wanted to keep this piece as snappy as possible while tying all the key elements together. You're right though, peak oil looms large over the coming years. There is no way out of this as you say, just how we choose to respond.
Thank you for doing that work Adrian, your understanding of collapse and how we might respond to it has been very helpful.
I've been collapse aware for sometime, but most acutely since the significant jump in world average temperatures and severe weather events of the last three years, and through a clearer awareness of changes here in UK. I have become addicted to following posters on Bluesky, such as Eliot Jacobson (and through that others), perhaps because I keep needing to be really sure of all this.
I'm (inevitably) in the later years of my life and with my wife we are hoping to have a new life in Scotland soon, where I'd like us to live well with collapse in mind and where can contribute some skills in the local community.
Thanks Peter, glad this was helpful. Sounds like you're in a good place in terms of accepting where we are and where we're going. I hope to hear about your Scotland move on here!
Thank you. I will try to do that!
Peter, please keep us posted on your Scotland project. My wife and I would like to follow you. Thanks
Great work sir, bravo.
William Catton's work came up.
I highly recommend Mike Dowd's work on William Catton.
https://soundcloud.com/michael-dowd-grace-limits/sets/william-r-catton-jr
Thanks Kevin, appreciate that. I'm a huge fan of Michael Dowd - he's been a huge inspiration to me to start writing about nature and our civilisational predicament. Cheers
In my country New Zealand the government describes us sentient beings as consumers. My task as a good citizen is to consume and thereby contribute to growth! In other words hasten my own death. It's a mad mad world but your wonderfully thoughtful article has made me even more determined to resist consuming as if I am a plague. Thank you.
Great article. Coincidentally, I wrote something similar from 4 perspectives (biopsicosociocultural). The biological perspective is framed through Energy blindness; the psychosocial perspective through human needs without exceeding limits; and the cultural one is framed through Joanna Macy's 'The Work that Reconnects' and 'The Great Turning', which is paired with "The Long Dark" we are living in right now. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-live-four-mottos-living-healthy-lifestyle-jes%C3%BAs-mart%C3%ADn-gonz%C3%A1lez-roa0e/
You're probably aware that peak U.S. oil production, led by the declining Permian Basin, could happen as soon as 2027, with the world following not long after. Plateauing OPEC output was bailed out by U.S. fracking around 2008 and it was called a "financial" crisis, not an oil crisis.
Peak Oil will initiate global economic shrinkage and major hardships, though nuclear power could delay the worst of it for awhile. It will also be the prime factor in slowing AGW, since people won't limit greed voluntarily until gluttony costs too much.
"100% renewable energy" fantasies (sprawling wind & solar is built and backed up w/oil & gas) are preventing many people from reacting wisely to what's coming. I don't see any easy way out of this.
These guys think "peak Permian" will have been 2025, when all the numbers are in.
https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries/2025-q2
No one knew 1970 was the peak of US conventional oil production until a few years later.
Excellent work, thank you for everything you do to spread knowledge about our predicament.
Thanks Alan, I'm grateful for the feedback and support 😁
Great article. Really provides a comprehensive and sober overview. Thank you
Sounds a lot like Daniel Quinn's Ishmael.
Thanks Styro
Our civilization was wrongly conceived from day 1:
https://exploringhumans.substack.com/p/the-social-and-economic-dynamics
I really like this.It's a very clear article. I guess I'm more scientifically incline than perhaps some people.But maybe that doesn't matter. So for me , principles of thermodynamics sit very comfortably from a scientific point. But weather, I'm comfortable with it or not.I can't help thinking that the human dimension in all of this , which is about providing beliefs and values and frames to justify just about anything , is a major obstacle toward universal understanding of the issues we face. So even if we don't put her hands over our ears and ignore our crisis it's quite difficult for people who adopt even subtly different frames of reference to unite around the problem let alone the solution. Plenty to think about.. plenty to get on with. Thanks for your contributuion.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment Robert, glad you enjoyed this. Adrian
https://empathphilosophy.substack.com/p/cah-a-comprehensive-analysis-of-the
Thanks! Excellent background on the science. Shared here; @PCa Permaculture Climate Action! https://www.facebook.com/groups/2046655862094973
A comprehensive read with lots of resources to follow up. Thank you for writing this and for posting in the neighbourhood group on FB. I’ll be sharing this with others.